Methodology for the Economic Analysis of On-orbit Servicing of Satellites

This paper develops a method for analyzing on-orbit satellite servicing concepts to determine if they can be used to adjust the reliability, reduce the associated costs, or improve the capabilities of spacecraft operations. Analytical methods are presented that provide an economic analysis of the feasibility of Advanced Satellite Maintenance (ASM) concepts. Beyond the strict cost savings analysis used by previous feasibility studies, this method includes factors to quantitatively account for previously ignored aspects such as the value and mission flexibility provided by an ASM system. By approaching the feasibility issue from both the cost and value sides, we go on to identify a cost window that can be used to bound the amount of funds to devote to servicing robot development and operation costs. The analytical methodology developed in the study is applied to a generic satellite constellation for demonstration purposes, but the method is applicable for analyzing the value of ASM concepts for any potentially serviceable satellite constellation with a measurable return. Results based on the conceptual satellite constellation costing $2.8 B provide a benefit window between $336 M and $842 M. This range represents 1230% of the baseline cost, bounding the cost of the servicing concept to less than this fraction of the satellite system. A major factor in determining the range of benefits is the percentage of failure cases that can be serviced. The range for successful servicing used in this analysis was 20-50%. The importance of designing capable robots is clear. INTRODUCTION Due to the difficulty of having astronauts repair satellites, researchers have proposed the use of automated robots to perform on-orbit satellite servicing. Researchers hope that Advanced Satellite Maintenance (ASM) could repair, refuel, or upgrade satellites after launch, helping reduce their expense and complexity. The ASM concept has been the focus of numerous papers in recent years, yet the capability remains undeveloped due to the feasibility and cost uncertainly of this new topic. Previous studies have not produced detailed results about whether ASM may be an effective method for reducing the costs of satellite operations. This study develops a comprehensive analysis to decisively conclude whether ASM could be a cost effective and viable method for improving satellite operations.